(This update was first posted on Feb. 27, 2026, days before Donald Tump’s second attack on Iran.)
The original version of this post was published on June 19, 2025, just before Trump bombed Iran. Its premise then had to consider only the potential outcomes of limited bomb strikes, not a wider or even all-out militay action that might include troops on the ground. Its analysisis is both more applicable and more dire today.
War with Iran could create major adverse consequences for the United States, ranging from deaths of U.S. military personnel and civilians in the region, possiby continuing at a heightened level for at least a year or two, to a wider conflict and, although unlikely, even the use of nuclear weapons.
As of today, Trump is again negotiating with Iran, major news media are reporting.
Good. That means there is time for cool heads to enter the discussion. (March 5, 2026 note: They didn’t.)